Assessing the Cost of Nutritionally Adequate and Low-Climate Impact Diets in Finland.

Background: Dietary changes form an important component of the sustainability transition of food systems but could be hindered by the cost of sustainable diets. Objectives: This study aimed to characterize the cost of nutritionally adequate and culturally acceptable diets with low-greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) in Finland. Methods: Two optimization models were built to find diets complying with nutritional and emissions requirements. The first model minimizes diet cost and the second one deviation from current diets. Both are calibrated to Finnish sociodemographic groups using dietary intake data, household budget survey data (for prices), and life cycle assessment coefficients (for GHGE). Three scenarios are simulated: "Health only" imposes only compliance with nutritional constraints, whereas "Health and GHGE-33%" and "Health and GHGE-50%" impose, in addition, minimum reductions in GHGE. Results: Minimum cost diets have a low-carbon footprint [-65% (-73%) for females (males)] and low cost [-69% (-73%) for females (males)] when compared with current diets but lack diversity and cultural acceptability. The more culturally acceptable health-only minimum deviation diets are marginally less costly and have a lower climate impact than baseline diets across all population groups. Reducing GHGE results in a substantial decrease in the cost of the minimum deviation diets. The lower cost of the minimum deviation diets with reduced GHGE results from both intercategory and intracategory substitutions. Conclusions: Affordability is not the key obstacle to the adoption of nutritionally adequate and lower GHGE diets, but cultural acceptability is. Reducing the climate footprint of diets can generate side benefits in terms of nutrition and affordability, which confirms that dietary change should be central to the sustainability transition of the Finnish food system. However, more attention should be paid to the issues of taste, convenience, social norms, and other aspects determining the cultural acceptability of sustainable diets.

Exploring tradeoffs among diet quality and environmental impacts in self-selected diets: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: Proposed sustainable diets often deviate dramatically from currently consumed diets, excluding or drastically reducing entire food groups. Moreover, their environmental sustainability tends to be measured only in terms of greenhouse gases emissions. The aim of this study was to overcome these limitations and identify a cluster of already adopted, relatively healthy diets with substantially lower environmental impacts than the average diet. We also aimed to estimate the reduction in multiple environmental impacts that could be achieved by shifting to this diet cluster and highlight possible tradeoffs among environmental impacts. METHODS: The diet clusters were identified by applying energy-adjusted multiple factor analysis and hierarchical clustering to the dietary data of the National FinHealth 2017 Study (n = 5125) harmonized with life cycle assessment data on food products from Agribalyse 3.0 and Agri-Footprint using nutrient intakes and global warming potential, land use, and eutrophication of marine and freshwater systems as the active variables. RESULTS: We identified five diet clusters, none of which had the highest overall diet quality and lowest impact for all four environmental indicators. One cluster, including twenty percent of the individuals in the sample was identified as a "best compromise" diet with the highest diet quality and the second lowest environmental impacts of all clusters, except for freshwater eutrophication. The cluster did not exclude any food groups, but included more fruits, vegetables, and fish and less of all other animal-source foods than average. Shifting to this cluster diet could raise diet quality while achieving significant reductions in most but not all environmental impacts. CONCLUSION: There are tradeoffs among the environmental impacts of diets. Thus, future dietary analyses should consider multiple sustainability indicators simultaneously. Cluster analysis is a useful tool to help design tailored, socio-culturally acceptable dietary transition paths towards high diet quality and lower environmental impact.

Reducing the carbon footprint of diets across socio-demographic groups in Finland: a mathematical optimisation study.

OBJECTIVES: To characterise nutritionally adequate, climate-friendly diets that are culturally acceptable across socio-demographic groups. To identify potential equity issues linked to more climate-friendly and nutritionally adequate dietary changes. DESIGN: An optimisation model minimises distance from observed diets subject to nutritional, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and food-habit constraints. It is calibrated to socio-demographic groups differentiated by sex, education and income levels using dietary intake data. The environmental coefficients are derived from life cycle analysis and an environmentally extended input-output model. SETTING: Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Adult population. RESULTS: Across all population groups, we find large synergies between improvements in nutritional adequacy and reductions in GHGE, set at one-third or half of the current level. Those reductions result mainly from the substitution of meat with cereals, potatoes and roots and the intra-category substitution of foods, such as beef with poultry in the meat category. The simulated more climate-friendly diets are thus flexitarian. Moving towards reduced-impact diets would not create major inadequacies related to protein and fatty acid intakes, but Fe could be an issue for pre-menopausal females. The initial socio-economic gradient in the GHGE of diets is small, and the patterns of adjustments to more climate-friendly diets are similar across socio-demographic groups. CONCLUSIONS: A one-third reduction in GHGE of diets is achievable through moderate behavioural adjustments, but achieving larger reductions may be difficult. The required changes are similar across socio-demographic groups and do not raise equity issues. A population-wide policy to promote behavioural change for diet sustainability would be appropriate.

Accounting for consumers' preferences in the analysis of dietary recommendations.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The goal of this article is to present and demonstrate the applicability of an original method to assess the economic and health impacts of compliance with food-based recommendations. The method takes account of consumers' preferences and the associated adoption cost in the assessment of various recommendations. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We combine an economic model of diet choice with an epidemiological model to compute the health impacts of dietary changes. To demonstrate the use of the method, we analyse the impacts of a 5% variation in the consumption of seven food groups taken separately: a 5% increase in consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and milk products; and a 5% decrease in consumption of red meat, all meats, salty/sweet products, ready meals and butter/cream/cheese. RESULTS: A recommendation, when adopted by consumers, generates important changes in the whole diet due to substitutions and complementarities among foods. All simulated recommendations have a positive impact on health. The F&V recommendation has the largest impact on the number of DALYs averted, but the highest adoption cost for consumers, especially for low-income consumers. Alone, the change in energy intake explains from 71% to 98% of the DALYs averted induced by a recommendation. CONCLUSIONS: Small increases in recommended foods have the potential of generating relatively significant health gains. Preference-driven substitutions among foods have a major effect on simulated health outcomes and should be included in the assessment of dietary recommendations, together with the adoption cost borne by consumers.

How effective are messages and their characteristics in changing behavioural intentions to substitute plant-based foods for red meat? The mediating role of prior beliefs.

By means of a population-based survey experiment, we analysed the effectiveness of two message characteristics - message framing and the refutation of misinformation - in persuading respondents to reduce their consumption of red meat and increase that of plant-based alternatives. We also tested whether the effects of those two message characteristics were moderated by prior beliefs about the health and climate impacts of red meat consumption. The data were collected with an online survey of the adult population living in Finland (N = 1279). We found that messages had a small but desired effect on intentions when the effect of prior beliefs was taken into account, but that that effect was strongly moderated by prior beliefs. In particular, messages changed behavioural intentions among the "meat-sceptics" (i.e., those believing relatively strongly in the negative health and climate effects of meat consumption) but not among the "meat believers" (defined symmetrically). The combination of frames and refutation of misinformation were not found to be more effective strategies than the provision of information through single-framed, one-sided messages. We found limited evidence that the way a message was formulated determined its effectiveness in changing behaviours.

Beyond Wishful Thinking: Integrating Consumer Preferences in the Assessment of Dietary Recommendations.

Convenience, taste, and prices are the main determinants of food choices. Complying with dietary recommendations therefore imposes a "taste cost" on consumers, potentially hindering adoption of those recommendations. The study presents and applies a new methodology, based on economic theory, to quantify this taste cost and assess the health and welfare effects of different dietary recommendations. Then, by comparison of those effects, we identify socially desirable recommendations that are most compatible with consumer preferences (i.e., that best balance health benefits against"taste cost") and should be prioritized for promotion. The methodology proceeds in three-steps: first, an economic-behavioral model simulates how whole diets would change if consumers complied with dietary recommendations; second, an epidemiological model estimates the number of deaths avoided (DA) due to the dietary change; third, an efficiency analysis weighs the health benefits against the taste and policy costs of each recommendation. The empirical model is calibrated using French data. We find that recommendations to reduce consumption of red meat and soft-drinks, or raise consumption of milk products and fish/seafood impose relatively moderate taste costs. By comparison, recommendations related to F&V consumption and, to a lesser extent, butter/cream/cheese, snacks, and all meats impose larger taste costs on consumers. The F&V recommendation is the costliest for consumers to comply with, but it also reduces diet-related mortality the most, so that a large budget could be allocated to promoting F&V consumption while keeping this policy cost-beneficial. We conclude that promotion of most dietary recommendations improves social welfare. Our framework complements the programming models available in nutrition and public health: those models are best used to identify dietary targets, following which our framework identifies cost-beneficial ways of moving towards those targets.

Economic assessment of nutritional recommendations.

The effect of consumers' compliance with nutritional recommendations is uncertain because of potentially complex substitutions. To lift this uncertainty, we adapt a model of consumer behaviour under rationing to the case of linear nutritional constraints. Dietary adjustments are derived from information on consumer preferences, consumption levels, and nutritional contents of foods. A calibration exercise simulates, for different income groups, how the French diet would respond to various nutrition recommendations, and those behavioural adjustments are translated into health outcomes through the DIETRON epidemiological model. This allows for the ex-ante comparison of the efficiency, equity and health effects of ten nutritional recommendations. Although most recommendations impose significant taste costs on consumers, they are highly cost-effective, with the recommendations targeting salt, saturated fat, and fruits and vegetables (F&V) ranking highest in terms of efficiency. Most recommendations are also economically progressive, with the exception of that targeting F&V.

Sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the EU elderly: a comparative analysis in four countries.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the elderly in four EU countries. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. For each country, a regression was performed of a multidimensional index of dietary quality v. sociodemographic variables. SETTING: In Finland, Finnish Household Budget Survey (1998 and 2006); in Sweden, SNAC-K (2001-2004); in the UK, Expenditure & Food Survey (2006-07); in Italy, Multi-purpose Survey of Daily Life (2009). SUBJECTS: One- and two-person households of over-50s (Finland, n 2994; UK, n 4749); over-50 s living alone or in two-person households (Italy, n 7564); over-60 s (Sweden, n 2023). RESULTS: Diet quality among the EU elderly is both low on average and heterogeneous across individuals. The regression models explained a small but significant part of the observed heterogeneity in diet quality. Resource availability was associated with diet quality either negatively (Finland and UK) or in a non-linear or non-statistically significant manner (Italy and Sweden), as was the preference for food parameter. Education, not living alone and female gender were characteristics positively associated with diet quality with consistency across the four countries, unlike socio-professional status, age and seasonality. Regional differences within countries persisted even after controlling for the other sociodemographic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Poor dietary choices among the EU elderly were not caused by insufficient resources and informational measures could be successful in promoting healthy eating for healthy ageing. On the other hand, food habits appeared largely set in the latter part of life, with age and retirement having little influence on the healthiness of dietary choices.